As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year, Western sanctions have quietly worn down Russia’s economy and military — despite Moscow’s propaganda claiming otherwise. The sanctions are working. But to have a truly decisive effect, they need to be expanded, enforced more strictly, and sustained.
🔒 What Sanctions Have Achieved So Far
Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the United States, the European Union, and dozens of allies have rolled out waves of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy exports, banking system, industrial base, and individual oligarchs. The results are real:
- $150 billion in oil revenues lost since 2022.
- GDP growth dropped from 4.5% to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025.
- Russia’s economy is 10% smaller than it would be without the war, according to University of Sussex economist Richard Disney.
- Foreign investment has evaporated, bank reserves are draining, and skilled labor is in short supply.
Sanctions haven’t stopped the war outright, but they’ve slowed down Russia’s war machine, making it more difficult and expensive for Moscow to wage its illegal war.
📈 Energy & Financial Sanctions
Russia’s economy is built on fossil fuel exports. While loopholes still exist, sanctions have caused a 3% drop in fossil fuel revenue year-over-year. Europe has banned most Russian oil and gas imports and continues to pressure the shadow fleet — a network of unsanctioned vessels transporting Russian oil. Once sanctioned, these ships can’t dock at major ports, raising transportation costs and reducing profit margins.
Selling oil through tankers is far costlier than through pipelines, and now over 60% of Russian seaborne oil exports rely on this shadow fleet.
The West has also hammered Russia’s financial sector:
- Major banks are banned from SWIFT.
- The Central Bank of Russia lost access to $300 billion in foreign reserves.
- Chinese banks began pulling back from Russia after the U.S. threatened secondary sanctions.
These actions force Russia into financial isolation, cutting it off from global capital markets and technology imports.
🔧 Military Industrial Strangulation
Russia’s ability to replenish advanced weaponry is collapsing. Sanctions on microelectronics, CNC machines, and critical components — enforced by a global coalition including South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and others — are forcing Moscow to pay more for lower quality substitutes.
Ukraine’s sanctions chief Vladyslav Vlasiuk emphasized the importance of denying Russia the raw materials and technology needed to maintain its war effort. Items like titanium, beryllium, lithium, and carbon fiber are now in Kyiv’s crosshairs for future sanctions.
🌎 Why Sanctions Haven’t Gone Further
Despite successes, sanctions have been rolled out incrementally due to concerns over economic blowback in Europe and North America. This piecemeal approach gave Russia time to adapt, smuggle components through Central Asia, and use alternative financial networks.
Tom Keatinge of RUSI warns that the West has often “overpromised and under-delivered.” Politicians praise the sanctions they do impose, but hesitate to go further. As a result, Moscow continues its aggression while Brussels debates another package.
🏛️ The EU Leads, The U.S. Hesitates
The EU is preparing its 18th sanctions package, which may:
- Lower the oil price cap from $60 to $45.
- Ban Russian LNG imports.
- Target Russia’s shadow fleet and crude oil exports.
- Disconnect 20 more banks from SWIFT.
- Ban maritime services linked to Russian oil.
- Add further measures against raw materials.
President Trump, who recently opposed more sanctions to preserve “future trade opportunities,” has shifted slightly after Russia’s massive drone and missile strikes on Ukraine from May 23-26. On May 25, Trump suggested he was now “considering” new sanctions.
Still, experts warn that U.S. policy remains unpredictable. Meanwhile, allies like Switzerland, Canada, Japan, and South Korea continue to push for coordinated, stronger measures.
❌ What Must Happen Next
To increase pressure on the Kremlin and reduce its ability to sustain war:
- Tighten oil sanctions by lowering the price cap and banning maritime services.
- Disconnect the remaining Russian banks from SWIFT.
- Sanction third-country financial systems and crypto tools used to evade restrictions.
- Ban Russian LNG imports and sanction all LNG trade.
- Target critical minerals like titanium and lithium.
- Enforce secondary sanctions against shadow fleet owners and insurers.
✊ Conclusion
Sanctions have weakened Russia. Not as fast as we hoped, but more deeply than many realize. Every new round increases the cost of war for Putin. Every loophole closed helps protect Ukraine.
As Vlasiuk says: “Sanctions work. We just need more.”
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