On Sunday, Russia launched its largest missile and drone barrage of the war, pounding Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Barely days later, Polish fighter jets scrambled as dozens of Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace, the first direct clash between NATO forces and Russian weapons since the invasion began.
For many observers, these events looked like another round in a war that has already stretched beyond three years. But to anyone paying attention to Vladimir Putin’s words and deeds over the past month, they are not random. They are part of a pattern: a deliberate escalation strategy designed to send three messages at once: to Ukraine, to Europe, and to Donald Trump.
This is Putin’s game: escalate step by step, normalize the unacceptable, and see if the West blinks.
Message to Ukraine: “resistance is futile”
Putin has spent the past weeks openly boasting about Ukraine’s supposed exhaustion. In Beijing, during a carefully staged press conference, he claimed that Ukraine’s combat brigades are “staffed at no more than 47-48 percent”, a thinly veiled declaration that Kyiv’s defenses are collapsing.
His aim is not just military, but psychological. By insisting that Ukraine’s reserves are depleted, he is trying to convince Ukrainians that further resistance is pointless. And by dangling the idea that any future peace terms will only get worse, he seeks to pressure Kyiv into accepting Russia’s conditions today rather than risk total collapse tomorrow.
But this narrative ignores Russia’s own staggering losses, its hollowed-out economy, and the fact that battlefield gains have been limited at best. Still, propaganda is a weapon in itself. Putin is betting that if he repeats the message enough, and couples it with missiles leveling cities, both Ukrainians and their allies will begin to believe it.
Message to Europe: “NATO is next”
The drone incursion over Poland wasn’t an accident, but it was a test.
By sending Russian drones across NATO’s eastern flank, Moscow demonstrated two things at once: that it can project force beyond Ukraine’s borders, and that it can exploit Western hesitation.
Polish and Dutch jets did scramble and shoot down several drones, but what followed? Strongly worded statements, hand-wringing in Brussels, and little else. No sanctions escalation, no new military red lines, no strategic shift. Just more warnings.
For Putin, that silence is golden. Each time Russia probes NATO’s airspace without a decisive response, it reinforces his belief that the alliance is more bark than bite. That is dangerous, because once Russia believes NATO will never act, the risk of a real confrontation skyrockets.
In Vladivostok, Putin said openly that any Western troops in Ukraine would be treated as “legitimate targets.” He wasn’t bluffing, he was warning. And Europe, fractured between hawkish states like Poland and hesitant players like Germany, still struggles to speak with one voice. Putin knows this, he thrives on it.
Message to Trump: “I’ll praise you, but I won’t bend”
Throughout his career, Putin has cultivated foreign leaders with flattery. Trump is no exception. In Beijing, Putin praised the Trump administration’s supposed “efforts to find peace by peaceful means.” In Vladivostok, he spoke of “security guarantees” for both Russia and Ukraine, a deliberately vague phrase that masks his true demands: neutralizing Ukraine and limiting Western presence.
Here’s the paradox: Putin keeps flattering Trump because he sees him as the best vehicle to pressure Ukraine into concessions. But at the same time, he escalates militarily, daring Trump to follow through on his own threats of “getting tough.”
It’s a cat-and-mouse game. Putin knows Trump admires “strong leaders.” So every missile barrage, every drone over NATO territory, every veiled threat is also a performance, designed to remind Trump that only Putin can make or break the peace.
The strategy: escalate slowly, normalize aggression
This is not new. The Kremlin has long relied on “creeping escalation” and plausible deniability to paralyze adversaries.
- In 2014, Putin’s “little green men”, soldiers without insignia, seized Crimea while Moscow denied everything.
- In Syria, Russia described troop deployments as a “humanitarian airlift” until the bombs started falling.
- Today, drones cross into NATO airspace and missiles “accidentally” strike near Western embassies in Kyiv. Each time, Moscow leaves just enough room for doubt.
The result? Western governments hesitate and hesitation emboldens Moscow.
What was once unthinkable, strikes near EU diplomatic offices, drones over NATO airspace, even attacks on nuclear sites, has become part of the background noise of war. That normalization is itself a victory for the Kremlin.
Why the West’s silence is so dangerous
Every unanswered escalation shifts the balance. By treating each incident as an isolated event, the West falls into Putin’s trap: reacting tactically, instead of strategically.
- A missile near Kyiv’s Cabinet of Ministers building? Just another day.
- Drones buzzing Poland? An “unfortunate incident.”
- A record-breaking missile barrage? More condemnations, but no consequences.
This pattern erodes deterrence. If Putin pays no price for crossing red lines, red lines cease to exist. And when red lines vanish, the risk of catastrophe grows, whether it’s a NATO confrontation or a nuclear incident at one of Ukraine’s many vulnerable sites.
The choice ahead
Putin’s strategy is clear: escalate slowly, hide behind denial, and dictate the terms of peace through intimidation. The West’s current strategy, piecemeal aid, cautious condemnations, and political hedging, only reinforces his hand.
If Europe and the United States want to prevent further escalation, they must reverse the dynamic. That means consequences for every drone that crosses NATO airspace, every strike near diplomatic facilities, every attempt to normalize aggression.
Otherwise, Putin won’t just dictate the terms of the war. He’ll dictate the terms of peace. And the “new world order” he parades alongside Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un won’t be a threat on the horizon, it will be reality.
🔗 At Kpictiah, we don’t sugarcoat it: Putin escalates because the West lets him. The only language the Kremlin respects is strength, anything less is an invitation for more war.
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